UFC on ESPN+ 14: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 odds, preview & picks

Most UFC Fight Night events don’t have a title bout, but there is one this Saturday for the organization’s first-ever visit to Uruguay. Valentina Shevchenko puts here women’s flyweight belt on the line in a rematch against Liz Carmouche. Here’s a look at that bout and the co-main event with MyBookie UFC Odds.

UFC Fight Night Montevideo Odds, Preview & Picks

  • When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Antel Arena, Montevideo, Uruguay
  • Live Stream: ESPN+

Valentina Shevchenko (17-3) vs. Liz Carmouche (13-6)

Shevchenko is a huge -1300 favorite to keep her flyweight title, while Carmouche is +700 at Mybookie. Way back on Sept. 30, 2010, in the C3 Fights organization, Carmouche beat Shevchenko by second-round TKO (retirement). In Round 2, the fighters went to the ground, and I Carmouche caught Shevchenko an up-kick. It sliced her eye wide open and Shevchenko’s eye wouldn’t stop bleeding. She wasn’t able to answer the bell for the next round. Shevchenko wanted to continue but the physician opposed.

That represents one of only three losses Shevchenko has suffered in MMA. The other two defeats came against Amanda Nunes, now a two-division world champion. Ironically, Carmouche was originally to fight Shevchenko’s sister Antonina.

“We were contacted by an organization called C3 in Oklahoma. We showed up and saw the poster and were like, ‘Wait a second. Something doesn’t look right. I thought Antonina had brown hair and she’s orthodox. This woman has blonde hair and is standing southpaw,” Carmouche said recently.

Carmouche made history in the UFC. Originally, UFC president Dana White said there would never be women fighting in the organization, but then Ronda Rousey became mega-popular and the UFC booked here. The first-ever UFC fight was UFC 157 happened on Feb. 23, 2013, in Anaheim, California between Rousey and Carmouche. It ended with the first of Rousey’s three armbar finishes in the Octagon.

After losing in a rematch with Nunes in 2017, Shevchenko has piled up three consecutive victories at flyweight, submitting Priscila Cachoeira, decisioning Joanna Jedrzejczyk and knocking out Jessica Eye. Her stoppage of Cachoeira and Eye both came in Round 2. Shevchenko is now widely considered the second-best female fighter in the UFC behind Nunes. Shevchenko has fought for the title three times in her career, and all were in the UFC. The two against Nunes were at bantamweight.

Carmouche had had two MMA title fights in her career. Before her historic women’s bantamweight championship fight with Ronda Rousey, “Girl-Rilla” had engaged in a title bout at Strikeforce, but unfortunately lost to Marloes Coenen.

Shevchenko has a 70 percent stoppage rate, which is just a little higher than Carmouche’s record of 61 percent. Shevchenko’s secret strength has always been her wrestling and clinch work, and if anyone has a chance of being strong enough to neutralize that part of her game, it is Carmouche. However, it is difficult to see how Carmouche lands much in the way of effective offense.

Vicente Luque (16-6-1) vs. Mike Perry (13-4)

Luque is -230 in this welterweight bout with Perry at +185. Luque is ranked No. 15 in the division and Perry is unranked. Luque, from Brazil, is on a five-fight winning streak since a May 2017 loss to Leon Edwards. He comes off a first-round TKO (punches) victory against Derrick Krantz in May. A standout in the Legacy Fighting Alliance promotion, Krantz took the spot of Neil Magny on short notice.

Krantz started the fight very well, hurting Luque, taking the Brazilian down and taking his back. When they got back to their feet, it was Luque who landed the heavy shots, knocking Krantz down with a straight left out of the clinch. Perry has lost three of five but if off a unanimous decision win over Alex Oliveira in April.

Luque and Perry are both 27, but the former has been in the game much longer than the latter. The American-born Brazilian welterweight made his pro debut as far back as June 27, 2009. Perry debuted professionally on Sept. 6, 2014, knocking out Hector Tirado at Top Alliance Combat 3. Eleven of Perry’s 13 victories have come via KO or TKO. The Jackson-Wink MMA standout started his career with nine straight knockouts. With six victories by submission, Luque has been making good use of his jiu-jitsu brown belt and luta livre purple belt.

Luque has a lot more in the way of skills and tools, but at the end of the day, this is a fight between two men who constantly seek the finish. Perry has looked to be a strong enough clinch fighter that he can probably choose to keep things standing.

Expert UFC Fight Night Montevideo Picks

Shevchenko by decision and Luque by KO/TKO.

Rest of the UFC Fight Night Montevideo Card

  • Luiz Garagorri vs. Humberto Bandenay
  • Volkan Oezdemir vs. Ilir Latifi
  • Rodolfo Vieira vs. Oskar Piechota
  • Enrique Barzola vs. Bobby Moffett
  • Gilbert Burns vs. Alexey Kunchenko
  • Ciryl Gane vs. Raphael Pessoa Nunes
  • Tecia Torres vs. Marina Rodríguez
  • Rogério Bontorin vs. Raulian Paiva
  • Geraldo de Freitas vs. Chris Gutíerrez
  • Rodrigo Vargas vs. Alex da Silva
  • Veronica Macedo vs. Polyana Viana