Story by MMAWeekly.com; Odds from BetEagle.com
The odds for Pride’s “Critical Countdown Absolute” event have been released on BetEagle.com. This show features the second round of Pride’s Open Weight Grand Prix, as well as five non-tournament bouts.
Here’s how the oddsmakers have broken down the fights, with the favorite in each fight listed above the underdog in this article. Below the odds for the nine fights on this card is a listing of the “odds to win the entire tournament” that have also been established by BetEagle.
This event takes place this Saturday, July 1st, and will debut on American pay-per-view on Sunday, July 2nd.
Pride: Critical Countdown Absolute 2006
Saturday, July 1st
Grand Prix Bouts:
Wanderlei Silva -215
Kazuyuki Fujita +175
-Wanderlei Silva opens up as a moderately big favorite at -215, which means that one would have to bet $215 in order to win $100 on Silva. Kazuyuki Fujita opens at +175, which means that one would have to bet $100 in order to win $175 on Fujita.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic -200
Hidehiko Yoshida +160
-The odds for this fight are pretty much as expected, with Mirko Cro Cop as the favorite, but not a huge favorite.
Josh Barnett -145
Mark Hunt +115
-Both of these fighters looked very impressive in the first round of the Grand Prix, and the odds for this fight are extremely close. Josh Barnett opens as the very slight favorite.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -425
Fabricio Werdum +325
-Fabricio Werdum opens up as the biggest underdog in this round of the Grand Prix (and the second-biggest underdog on the entire event), even though he is widely regarded as a top ten heavyweight. The reason: His opponent is Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, who is widely regarded as the #2 heavyweight in the world.
Vitor Belfort -500
Yoshiki Takahashi +350
-Vitor Belfort opens up as a big favorite against Yoshiki Takahashi, even though Belfort has lost four of his past five fights. The oddsmakers would appear to have little faith in Takahashi, whose most recent fight in Pride was a brutal KO loss at the hands of Igor Vovchanchyn last year.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira -220
Alistair Overeem +180
-Antonio Rogerio Nogueira won the first time these two met, which was in early 2005, and he’s favored by a moderate margin to win again.
Yoshihiro Nakao -220
Eun Su Lee +180
-Not too much is known about Eun Su Lee. On the other hand, Yoshihiro Nakao is a former star in K-1′s MMA promotion and is undefeated in MMA, making it no surprise that Nakao opens as the favorite.
Edson Drago -350
Pawel Nastula +275
-Even though Edson Drago is making his Pride debut, he doesn’t have the burden of having an MMA record of 0-2 like Pawel Nastula, who is an Olympic Gold Medalist and a legend in Judo, but has been unsuccessful so far in his Pride career.
Odds to Win the Entire Grand Prix Tournament
(highest number is the least likely to win, according to the odds)
-Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira +140
-Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic +280
-Josh Barnett +325
-Mark Hunt +350
-Hidehiko Yoshida +1050
-Kazuyuki Fujita +1100
-Fabricio Werdum +1500
-Field (any fighter not listed above) +400
-Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is considered the favorite at this point, with Mirko Cro Cop not too far behind. Josh Barnett and Mark Hunt are very close to each other in the odds, while Hidehiko Yoshida, Kazuyuki Fujita, and Fabricio Werdum are considered long shots to win the tournament. Since all seven of the other Grand Prix participants are listed, the “Field” entry would mean either Wanderlei Silva or someone else who may enter a future round of the Grand Prix as an injury replacement. Interestingly, the odds rank Silva as being less likely to win the Grand Prix than all four of the other top favorites (Nogueira, Cro Cop, Barnett, and Hunt).
-Compared to the original “odds to win the entire tournament” that were created before the opening round of the Open Weight Grand Prix, Josh Barnett has gone from the middle of the pack to now being the #3 most likely fighter to win the entire tournament, according to the odds. Mark Hunt was originally the #4 most likely fighter to win the tournament out of a field of 16, but is now listed as the #4 most likely fighter to win the tournament out of a remaining field of eight, likely because his opponent in the second round of the tournament is Barnett.
BetEagle has also released the odds for the upcoming K-1 World Max 2006 event, which will take place on June 30th in Japan.
Takayuki Kohiruimaki +475
-Masato, who is one of the biggest ratings draws in all of Japan, is the heavy favorite.
Andy Souwer -400
Virgil Kalakoda +300
-Andy Souwer is also the heavy favorite in his fight, although not as big of a favorite as Masato.
Albert Kraus -230
-Drago is the slight underdog in this fight, which will only be his third fight in K-1.
Baukaw Por. Pramuk -400
Yoshihiro Sato +300
-Yoshihiro Sato is the underdog in this fight by the exact same margin that Virgil Kalakoda is in his fight.