Oddsmakers Picking dos Santos, but Fans Go with Overeem as Early Favorite

January 8, 2012
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The oddsmakers may be slating UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos as the early favorite over Alistair Overeem, but you, the fans, seem to think otherwise.

After Overeem quickly dispatched of Brock Lesnar at UFC 141, he became the No. 1 contender to dos Santos’ throne.

Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas from BetOnFighting.com, quickly set the line on the fight, opening with dos Santos as a -240 favorite, with the comeback on Overeem at +190.

“I was very impressed with Overeem’s performance against Brock. I think we might see his domination of Lesnar impact the betting line early, so wouldn’t be shocked if we see the initial line drop slightly,” Kalikas told MMAWeekly.com when opening the line.

“As we get closer to fight day, I think we might see it climb back up some. Should be a great fight, but make no mistake JDS is the rightful solid favorite heading in. I firmly believe he’s currently the best heavyweight in the world.”

Opening it up to fans with our MMAWeekly.com Reader’s Poll, you guys seemed to think otherwise, at least early on. After several thousand votes were cast, it was close, but Overeem was the outright favorite.

The consensus centered on how the fight would end… by knockout or TKO.

After the poll closed, it was Overeem as the favorite with 48 percent of you saying he would win by KO or TKO, while 43 percent thought the dos Santos would be the fighter with the heavier hands when they finally square off.

Considering the early returns, this will surely be one of the most anticipated heavyweight title fights in some time.

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  • therealmo

    -240 is way too much for a fight that is easily a toss up

  • Mario

    Overeem is gonna come ready.

    This is gonna be huge!

    K-1 champ vs The UFC champ (who’s been on a tear!)


  • Matt Magick

    Dos Santos hands are so fast and hard, Overeems not gonna know what hit him

  • markronin

    With Lesnar there was uncertainty as to how his surgery and time off would affect him. There are no questions with this match-up. Both are ready with no injuries or doubts.

    JDS has been unstoppable and we know how fast his hands are. He picked apart Carwin, who is similar to Overeem in size and striking, although Overeem has better kicks and knees. Still, Overweem is slower and plodding, and he has a weak chin.

    JDS KOs Overeem first round is a sure bet.

    Overeem’s only chance is to close the distance and knee him or take him down. If he thinks he can stand and trade with JDS he won’t last more than a minute.

    • dos Santos had knee surgery last month.

      • MikeMc1983

        Thanks, that guys had me wondering if I was imagining the jds injury. Plus you never know the next time overeem may stub a toe. There is a bunch of stuff in the world that can jump out in front of you.

    • macgrubber

      “He picked apart Carwin, who is similar to Overeem in size and striking”. Carwin similar to Overeem in striking? When did he win k-1? Carwin has heavy hands but he is not similar to overeem. Overeem wins this.

  • MrAdidas

    Overeem is going to get KTFO! Book it!
    Overeem did good Vs Brock who was out for over a year & who suffers from diverticulitis. Not to mention that Brock is a ONE dimensinal fighter, so Overeem didn’t need to worry about anything other than takedowns. But now that he will be figthing Dos Santos, there are many more ways Dos Santos can win this fight, compared to Brock, who depends on his wrestling & wrestling alone, to win fights.

    Not sure why so many people are betting on Overeem, but all I have to say is SPEED KILLS & Jr Dos Santos has speed & severe KO power in both hands. Overeem has not been figthing top competition, and Brock is not a “Top level fighter”. IMO when Overeem steps in with Dos Santos & he realises how fast Jr is, Overeem is going to panic & that’s when Dos Santos will KFTO of him.

    • Enfo

      MrAdidas – I do respect your opinion in the matter, and I agree that JDS is an amazing striker and arguably the best striker in the heavyweight division.
      But (obviously there is a but), I don’t think it is fair to say that Overeem has not been fighting top competition prior his fight with Lesnar. Some of his toughest opponents may have been in the K-1, and while you can always say that K-1 is not MMA (and rightley so), but maybe in this upcoming fight it has the potential to be a striking/kicking contest similar to K-1-matchups since JDS much likely come ready to trade.
      Do not underestimate top strikers like Badr Hari, Peter Aerts and Gokhan Saki, all of which Overeem has defeated.

    • fitefan

      JDS only has one fight plan. Punching. So, there are not that many more ways he can win the fight.
      JDS gave Nelson all he had, and Nelson took it. JDS still tried to punch him down, and failed to cut the cage off, back him up against the fence, and finish him.

      I agree, Brock was not a test of Overeem’s abilities. But I don’t see Overeem panicking. He’s a veteran fighter. He kept his cool with his eye cut and blood driping in it.

      He came against Brock with a strategy, and I expect him to come with one against JDS. The Cain fight clearly informs Overeem to be wary of JDS punching power.
      I like JDS, but I think Overeem is the smarter fighter. And will win because of it.

  • BiGwHoOp

    lol @ overeem is similar to carwin in striking bahahaha REALLY??? cmon you obviously have no clue what your talking about

    • Lesnardo

      I swear, some of the posters here are plain dumb.

      Yes, Carwin and Overeem have similar striking. They both punch and they both kick. And they sometimes throw knees.

      One has a K-1 title and the other has never competed in boxing/kickboxing in his life.