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  - UFC 93 IN-DEPTH: SHOGUN VS. COLEMAN
Friday, January 16, 2009 - by Ricardo Mendoza - MMAWeekly.com
On Saturday night in Ireland, it will be almost three years since UFC Hall of Fame fighter Mark Coleman and Pride Middleweight GP 2005 champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua first met in Pride. Neither fighter has seen action for quite some time, but we will finally have a definitive conclusion when the two meet at UFC 93 on Saturday night.
STRIKING
One would think that Rua would have the superior advantage in this area of the fight because of his vast experience in Muay Thai, while Coleman has never really evolved from being a wrestler with punishing ground and pound.
Rua has become known for his killer instinct on the feet and utilizing his technique to overwhelm his opponent, forcing him to look for other options besides trading shots. The only issue that Rua has with his stand-up game is his lack of power behind his strikes, which could leave him open for a power puncher to land that huge blow that could change the whole complexion of the fight. Look for Rua to put together combinations and overwhelm Coleman with his speed.
Like stated before, Coleman has never really evolved from being a dominant wrestler and isn’t known that much for his stand-up striking. Word has it that Coleman has been working on his striking for this fight and will be prepared to trade with Rua on the feet. His best shot on the feet will be to land that one huge punch that will change the complexion of the fight to his favor.
GRAPPLING AND SUBMISSIONS
Coleman and Rua hold different strengths in this area of the fight. Besides being a proficient striker, Rua is also a surprisingly good submission fighter. Coleman’s main strength as a fighter has always been his wrestling, being a former NCAA wrestling champion.
Rua has shown that he is not a one-dimensional fighter. He has become very good at locking on submissions, which is most likely a result of his opponents always taking him down to avoid his striking expertise. In their first fight, Rua attempted several submissions after being taken down by Coleman and expect him to do the same if he ends up in the same position.
Coleman will need to use his bread and butter to win the fight and that is his superior wrestling technique. Although he won the fight under unusual circumstances – Rua's arm broke as he posted to try and stop a takedown – it was his Coleman's wrestling that led to the injury of Rua and to his victory. Look for Coleman to quickly take the fight to the ground and use his famous ground and pound, which will be all more effective in the cage.
OCTAGON CONTROL
This will be a key factor because it will sway the outcome. Rua has always been known for his aggressive nature and he demonstrated that in his lone UFC appearance by being the aggressor in the opening round. Look for Rua to continue that as he would like to make it an early night for Coleman.
Coleman will need to be the aggressor in the fight if he is to avoid Rua’s dangerous striking ability. He’ll need to shoot right in for a takedown and not waste anytime or give Rua a chance of getting into some kind of groove on the feet. Coleman is not a good defensive fighter and will need to gain control to win.
CONDITIONING
This category is the wildcard in the fight, just for the simple reason that both fighters have been known to not have the best of gas tanks. Whoever comes into the fight in shape will have a big advantage if the fight goes into the later rounds.
Rua had been known to get a little winded in his Pride days, but he had some absolutely horrible conditioning in his last fight against Forrest Griffin. Although he was impressive in the first round, it was his conditioning that killed him and what ultimately lost the fight for him. He was injured going into the fight, which may have limited his conditioning work, so as long as he is healthy, expect him be in better shape this time around.
Coleman has also been known to get winded when a fight hit’s the latter stages, but with the style of fighting that he implores, it hasn’t effected him all that much. Coleman will be cutting down in weight, so that could be a negative factor or positive factor, depending on how his body reacts to the weight cut.
X FACTOR
Both fighters are coming off injuries and neither has seen any action over the past year, so expect both of them to have some ring rust when they enter the Octagon. Coleman will be also moving down from heavyweight to light heavyweight for the first time, which presents an unknown factor for him.
Rua comes off a serious knee injury that kept him out of action longer than expected, but he seems to be healthy and ready to fight. The question will be how well his surgically repaired knee holds up during the fight.
Coleman is also coming off an injury, but not as serious as Rua’s. None-the-less, he hasn’t seen action for quite some time and at 44 years of age, it might be an uphill battle to come out the victor in the fight.
KEYS TO SUCCESS
Plain and simple, Rua needs to keep the fight on the feet and use his technique to overwhelm Coleman on the feet with strikes, stopping him as early as possible, and not letting the fight get into the later rounds.
If the fight goes to the ground, Rua will need to use his slick submission skills to keep Coleman off balance, neutralizing his ground and pound.
Coleman has one shot of winning the fight and that is to take Rua down to the ground, unleashing a hellacious barrage of ground and pound, while doing it over the course of three rounds. It's going to be difficult for Coleman to finish Rua, barring some kind of freak injury like in the first fight.
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